Figure 1. Red
twilight here on Earth
Kepler did it
again! Exactly one year after the announcement of the first truly Earth-like extrasolar planet,
our beloved space robot has provided
good evidence for a second one. In scientific terms, this means a rocky object about
the same size as Earth, orbiting at the right distance from its host star to
support surface bodies of liquid water, given the appropriate atmospheric
pressure and composition. In layman’s terms, it means a planet that might have
life.
This time the
lucky star is Kepler-186, a ruddy M dwarf located about 493 light years (151
parsecs) away. The lucky planet is Kepler-186f,
the outermost of five companions traveling in an orbital space smaller than the
semimajor axis of Mercury. Our new sibling’s radius is between 1.11 and 1.17
times that of Earth (1.11-1.17 Rea) – too small to maintain a hydrogen envelope,
according to recent studies (Lopez & Fortney 2013, Weiss & Marcy 2014).
If planet f has a composition similar to Venus or Earth, as seems likely, its
mass will fall in the range of 1.4 to 1.6 times Earth (1.4-1.6 Mea). Astrobiologically speaking, these are extremely
sexy stats.
Figure 2. Artist’s
view of Kepler-186f, with its inner companions visible near the host star (one
in transit). This version of the planet finds a happy medium between the “blue
versus gold” approaches of many other images in circulation – see Figures 4
through 7, below. Credit: NASA
-------------------
The
architecture of the Kepler-186 system is surprisingly similar to that of Kepler-62, home of the
Earth analog announced last year. Both Kepler-186 and Kepler-62 are known to support
five low-mass planets on co-planar orbits, such that all five can be observed
in transit across the central star. All planets in both systems are smaller
than 2 Rea, and each system supports a tightly packed configuration of three or
four planets inside 0.15 astronomical units (AU), along with one or two planets
on wider orbits in the system habitable zone. None of the planets in either
system experience transit timing variations or produce a measurable change in
the host star’s radial velocity. Therefore, planet radii provide the only clue
to their masses. In both systems, the most Earth-like planet orbits near the
outer edge of the habitable zone, receiving about as much energy as Mars in the
Solar System. Notably, both host stars are much cooler and less massive than
our Sun, so that Mars-like temperatures are available much closer to the star
than in our system.
Figure 3. Orbital
architecture of the Kepler-186 system. Planets are shown at their relative
sizes.
As an M
dwarf, Kepler-186 is very cool indeed – and its coolness gives rise to the
principal difference between the two systems. With a spectral type of M1, Kepler-186
is half as massive as our Sun – probably somewhere between 0.48 and 0.54 Solar
masses (0.48-0.54 Msol). Its effective temperature is about 3750 K, and its
luminosity is less than 5% Solar. By contrast, Kepler-62 is a K2 star with a
mass of 0.69 Msol, an effective temperature of 4925 K, and a luminosity 21%
Solar. Kepler-62f receives about as much heat as Mars in an orbital period only
39% as long (267/687), whereas Kepler-186f has an even shorter period – just 130
days, or 19% of a Martian year – and it receives even less heat and light than
Kepler-62f.
The planet’s
proximity to its cool host means that its rotation is likely to be synchronous or “tidally
locked” (Selsis et al. 2007). In other words, one hemisphere of Kepler-186
always faces the star, while the other always faces away. Under this regime,
day and night are geographic features rather than measures of time. On the day side,
the planet’s red sun would appear motionless in the sky, neither rising nor
setting, and shadows would never change angle or length. On the night side,
darkness would be eternal, while the stars would float forever in a slow-motion
parade across the sky, with a distinctly different set of “summer” and “winter”
constellations, just as on Earth. Tidally locked rotation can pose serious
challenges to the emergence and survival of life, as we will see below.
Table 1. Planet parameters
for the Kepler-186 system
Source: Kepler Mission Site. Column 1 shows
the planet name. Column 2 shows the planet orbital period in days. Column 3
shows the planet radius in Earth units (Rea). Column 4 shows the planet
semimajor axis in astronomical units (AU). Column 5 shows the planet
equilibrium temperature (Teq) in Kelvin (K), assuming an albedo of 0.3 and no
greenhouse effect.
-------------------
The detection
of Kepler-186f was a major news story the day it broke (Thursday, April 17,
2014). Science published the
discovery paper (Quintana et al. 2014), and the Internet was rapidly flooded
with renditions of the planet’s possible appearance (check out some nifty
videos: this one, this one, and this one on YouTube). Visions of the planet
reveal a basic split in assumptions about its geography and climate: the blues
versus the golds.
For the
blues, Kepler-186f is an ocean planet (Figures
4 & 5), with vast stretches of open water and jagged island continents
reminiscent of the Indonesian or Japanese archipelagoes. You can almost make
out “argosies of magic sails”
guided by “pilots of the purple twilight.”
Figure 4. Kepler-186f
imagined as a warm ocean planet. The artist whimsically adds a moon.
Figure 5. Size
comparison of Kepler-186f and Earth: two blue marbles. Credit: Planetary Habitability Laboratory, University
of Puerto Rico, Arecibo.
These blue images
encourage us to picture Kepler-186f as a slightly overgrown Earth twin. The
gold party, however, present a much dryer world (Figures 6 & 7), with landlocked seas and vast plains that
recall Canada, Siberia, or the Sahara. Such golden visions assume that the
planet’s rotation is rapid, like Earth or Mars, rather than tidally locked.
Only a planet that experiences a day/night cycle could sustain the extensive
polar ice visible in these renditions.
Figure 6.
Kepler-186f imagined as a less humid world suitable for “amber waves of grain,”
like the plains of Asia, Africa, and North America. Credit: The Mars Underground
Figure 7. Size
comparison of Earth and Kepler-186f: on this golden version of the planet, a
large fraction of the water seems to be frozen. Credit: CNet
Now for a closer look at the science behind these beguiling extrasolar visions. Simultaneous with the official discovery paper by Elisa Quintana and colleagues, a more detailed analysis of the formation and physical characteristics of Kepler-186f appeared as a preprint (Bolmont et al. 2014). I highly recommend this careful, nuanced article.
Mindful that our understanding of exoplanets is strongly conditioned by the
accuracy of our data on their host stars, Bolmont and colleagues considered a
range of values for the mass and radius of the red parent star, Kepler-186. All
stellar mass values fall between 0.48 and 0.54 Msol, but overall this group
prefers numbers that yield slightly larger planets than the ones in Table 1 above. Nevertheless, their various
models agree that Kepler-186f is about 50% more massive and 15% larger than
Earth. This is an excellent size for a life-bearing planet, consistent with
plate tectonics and long-term retention of an Earth-like atmosphere.
They also conducted
numerical simulations to investigate the potential formation history of all
five planets in the system. Results emphasized the oddness of the wide gap
between the orbits of planets e and f (see Figure 3, above). The study team found that an additional planet would
fit comfortably in this gap. As long as its orbit was slightly inclined to
those of the other five planets, such an object would not be observed in
transit – yet it would very likely share the habitable zone with planet f. Dynamical analyses suggest that this
planet, if it existed, would be less massive than Earth, possibly a hotter
sibling of Mars at ~0.1 Mea.
Bolmont and
colleagues also examined the potential habitability of Kepler-186f. They note
that the planet receives only about one-third the insolation of Earth, so its
nominal equilibrium temperature is even lower than that of Mars. However, their
analysis finds that a rocky planet of 1.5 Mea is almost certain to support a
substantial atmosphere (plausibly composed of nitrogen and carbon dioxide).
This combination would produce a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise the
planet’s temperature above 273 K and thereby sustain liquid water – just as
Mars would, if only it were massive enough. These results are consistent with
both the blue and the gold visions of the planet.
Their models of tidal evolution assume
that Kepler-186f originally had a fast rotation, like the outer planets of our
Solar System, but stellar tides have steadily reduced its state of spin. As they
conclude, “The age of Kepler-186 is thought to be higher than a few billion
years, so assuming an Earth dissipation […] Kepler-186f should be in a
pseudo-synchronous rotation” (Bolmont et al. 2014). In other words, if
Kepler-186f is old enough for evolution to have produced complex organisms (i.e.,
about as old as the Earth), it is also old enough for its rotation to become
tidally locked. Such a state would have profound effects on its environment.
As decades of research have shown, a
tidally locked planet has two temperature poles corresponding to its two
hemispheres: a hot pole near the substellar point on the bright side, where the
parent star appears directly overhead, and a cold pole near the anti-stellar
point on the dark side, where the sun never shines and temperatures vary little
from the minimum. If a tidally locked planet has a thick enough atmosphere,
especially with a significant amount of water vapor, heat will circulate
between hemispheres and prevent a complete freeze-out of volatiles on the dark
side. On relatively warm planets, a global ocean might persist. On colder
planets, a regime known as “Eyeball Earth” might evolve (Angerhausen et al.
2013).
Figure 8.
Schematic view of an Eyeball Earth. Credit:
Beau.TheConsortium
In the
classic model of an Eyeball Earth, the dark hemisphere is an icy, starlit
wasteland, something like a mash-up of Antarctica and the Arctic Ocean in deep
winter. The bright hemisphere is mostly dry and barren, perhaps like the Gobi
Desert. Where the two hemispheres meet is a long, narrow country where the
parent star is either just above or just below the horizon, a land forever on
the brink of twilight. That’s where we can imagine seas, rivers, and
vegetation.
Kepler-186f
is an excellent candidate for an Eyeball Earth, so I’m surprised
that none of the artist’s views in circulation have represented it as such. Whether its
red sun would remain motionless in the sky as seen by an
observer in the bright hemisphere would depend on the planet’s orbital
eccentricity: the more eccentric the orbit, the greater the visible motion of
the local sun. Since Bolmont’s group estimated that all five planets in the
system must have eccentricities of 0.05 or less, we can expect relatively little movement
above or below the horizon on a tidally locked version of Kepler-186f.
Still, the tidal locking scenario has a silver lining of sorts, since recent work shows that a
terrestrial planet can maintain a magnetic field (provided it evolves one) even
in a state of synchronous rotation. Thus Kepler-186f fulfills one widely cited
criterion for habitability: the potential for a magnetosphere that can protect
its atmosphere from erosion.
Alongside their calculations of the planet’s insolation, Bolmont and colleagues note
that the wavelengths at which an M dwarf radiates are less suitable for
photosynthesis than the light of a G-type star like our Sun. This drawback has been observed by previous investigators, who
nevertheless conclude that life might still evolve and thrive under such
conditions (Tarter et al. 2007). One workaround involves darker pigmentation
for photosynthetic plants, as illustrated by a feature in Scientific American back in 2008.
Figure 9. Hypothetical
vegetation on an M dwarf planet. Credit: Scientific
American
Now that the sample of extrasolar Earth analogs has two members, it's almost not too soon to start generalizing. But here goes anyway. Both host stars, Kepler-62 and Kepler-186, are dimmer and less massive than our Sun, and they represent spectral types - K and M - that are much more numerous in the Milky Way than G-type stars. Both systems have very similar architectures, and their design is not unusual among the multi-planet systems revealed by radial velocity and transit searches. GJ 581, HD 40307, GJ 667C, Kepler-11, Kepler-20, Kepler-169, Kepler-215, and Kepler-351 all have a similar distribution of orbits. Even though most of these stars are hotter than Kepler-186, and none has an Earth-size planet in the right place, they demonstrate that well-packed systems of small planets are as common as crows in Seattle. Kepler data in particular have shown that planets between 1 and 2 Rea are the commonest of all. In brief: prospects for Earth-like planets across our Galaxy just dramatically improved.
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